NHL Picks: Take Tampa Bay Lightning -185 and Over 6.5 Goals at Home vs Columbus

Tuesday, January 08, 2019

Minnesota Wild vs Boston Bruins

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Bruins to win the game. The projected score is BOS 3.5 and MIN 2.7, with Boston winning 64% of the time. The moneyline for the Bruins is -186 which translates to 65 percent (chance of winning). They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons but both teams are down overall playing each other (Wild -33 units, Bruins -13 units). The Wild were -116 favorites on average. In these games, the Wild averaged 2.5 and the Bruins 1.8 goals.

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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New Jersey Devils vs Buffalo Sabres

The simulations slightly favor the Devils who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Devils 2.9 and Sabres 2.7, with New Jersey being given a 55% chance of winning. At -115 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Sabres a 53 percent chance of winning. People are betting more heavily on the Devils based on how the moneyline is moving. The Devils have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-1 record and they have the large edge in profit at +350 to -342 units. The average moneyline for the Devils was -60 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Devils averaged 3.3 and the Sabres 1.8 goals.

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Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Islanders

The odds favor the Islanders, but the sims are solidly on the Islanders. The projected score is NYI 3 and CAR 2.6, and New York is winning 57% of simulations. The Islanders are -116 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 54 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Islanders going 5-2. They have the large edge in units at +520 to -332 units. The Hurricanes were -154 favorites on average. In these games the Islanders averaged 3.1 goals per game and the Hurricanes 2.1.

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Florida Panthers vs Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is PIT 3.8 and FLA 3.1, and Pittsburgh is winning 63% of the sims. At -172 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Penguins a 63 percent chance of winning. People are betting more heavily on the Panthers based on how the moneyline is moving. The Penguins have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-1 record and they have the large edge in profit at +230 to -390 units. In these games the Penguins averaged 4.2 goals per game and the Panthers 2.5.

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Montreal Canadiens vs Detroit Red Wings

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Canadiens are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Canadiens 2.9 and Red Wings 2.8, with Montreal winning 52% of the latest sims. The Red Wings are -108 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 52 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Red Wings to win. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Canadiens going 8-2. They have the large edge in units at +501 to -495. The average moneyline for the Red Wings was +54 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Canadiens averaged 4.2 and the Red Wings 1.8 goals.

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Columbus Blue Jackets vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Lightning to win the game. The projected score is TB 4.2 and CLB 3.1, and Tampa Bay is winning 68% of the sims. The moneyline for the Lightning is -185 which translates to 65 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Lightning are 4-3 and they have the large edge in profit at +26 to -123 units. The average moneyline for the Lightning was -37 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Lightning averaged 3.6 goals per game and the Blue Jackets 2.7.

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Philadelphia Flyers vs Washington Capitals

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Capitals to win the game. The projected score is WAS 4 and PHI 2.7, and Washington is winning 73% of simulations. The Capitals are -211 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 68 percent. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. The Capitals actually have the large edge in profit at +-193 to 11 units. Both teams have averaged 3 goals in these games.

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Dallas Stars vs St. Louis Blues

The odds have this as an even matchup, but the sims are solidly on the Blues. The projected score is STL 3 and DAL 2.8, and St. Louis is winning 55% of simulations. The moneylines for the game are Stars -110 and Blues -110. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Head-to-head, the Blues are 5-4 but both teams are down overall playing each other (Stars -186 units, Blues -32 units). The average moneyline for the Stars was +8 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. Both teams have averaged 2.8 goals in these games.

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Colorado Avalanche vs Winnipeg Jets

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Jets over the Avalanche. The projected score is WPG 3.9 and COL 2.9, with Winnipeg winning 66% of the time. At -160 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Jets a 62 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Jets have the recent head-to-head edge going 6-4. They have the large edge in units at +10 to -153 units. The average moneyline for the Avalanche was +89 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Jets averaged 3.3 goals per game and the Avalanche 1.9.

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New York Rangers vs Las Vegas Golden Knights

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Golden Knights to win the game. The projected score is LV 3.8 and NYR 2.5, and Las Vegas is winning 73% of simulations. At -278 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Golden Knights a 74 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Golden Knights to win. Head-to-head, the Golden Knights are 2-1 and they have the large edge in profit at +14 to -157 units. The average moneyline for the Golden Knights was -56 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. Both teams have averaged 3.3 goals in these games.

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Edmonton Oilers vs San Jose Sharks

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Sharks to win the game. The projected score is SJ 4 and EDM 2.5, and San Jose is winning 76% of simulations. The Sharks are -200 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 67 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Oilers based on how the moneyline is moving. The Sharks have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2 and they have the large edge in profit at +67 to -163 units. In these games the Sharks averaged 4.7 goals per game and the Oilers 3.7.

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Article source: https://www.scout.com/hockey/nhl/news/nhl-picks-take-tampa-bay-lightning-185-and-over-6-5-goals-at-home-vs-columbus/

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