I had a great 2018 betting on props, thanks primarily to our FantasyLabs Tools, so for 2019 I am publishing a quick-n’-dirty daily piece in which I highlight one of my favorite props for the day.
A quick note on props: When a line is terribly wrong, I usually don’t even get the chance to write about it, because the line will have corrected by the time most people read the piece.
So the props I’ve written about this year haven’t truly been my favorites or the ones in which I’ve most heavily invested. Rather, they’ve been ones that offer an edge but not one that’s obvious or large enough to be immediately exploited by the market.
That distinction might not matter to some readers, but I want to be transparent about that.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
5-6-1, -0.65 Units
- Golf: 1-1-0, +0.25 Units
- NFL: 1-2-0, -0.85 Units
- NBA: 0-2-0, -2.0 Units
- NHL: 3-0-1, +1.7 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet for Saturday, Jan. 12: Collin Delia Total Saves Over/Under 29.5
The Pick: Over (-110)
I’ve already highlighted two props today.
But the ice has been nice to us, and there’s an NHL prop that’s just begging to be bet, so that’s what we’ll do.
On Wednesday, Collin Delia’s save prop was way too low, and that’s the case again today.
In the Blackhawks-Golden Knights game (ESPN+, 8:30 p.m. ET), Delia will once again start in goal for Chicago, and he offers great value. In the NHL Props Tool, we have Delia projected for a slate-high 38.8 saves.
While that number might seem high, Delia has 33, 39, 47, 30, 46 and 35 saves in his six games this season.
For the year, the Blackhawks have allowed the second-most shots on goal at 34.83. As for the Golden Knights, they rank fifth with 33.1 shots. And a look in the FantasyLabs NHL Models shows that the Knights have a slate-high 37.3 shots per game over the past 15 days.
This line is available at Bovada. At -110, I’d bet it to 32.5. At 29.5, I’d bet it to -145.