NHL Game Picks: Capitals a Good Value Even at -200

Sunday, December 02, 2018

Anaheim Ducks vs Washington Capitals

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Capitals to win the game. The projected score is WAS 3.6 and ANA 2.3, and Washington is winning 73% of simulations. At -200 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Capitals a 67 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons but both teams are down overall playing each other (Ducks -16 units, Capitals -84 units). The average moneyline for the Ducks was +68 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Ducks averaged 3.8 and the Capitals 2.8 goals.

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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Winnipeg Jets vs New York Rangers

The odds and our simulations favor the Jets over the Rangers despite being on the road. The projected score is Jets 3.3 and Rangers 2.9, with Winnipeg winning 58% of the latest sims. The Jets are -152 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Rangers are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. They have the large edge in units at +245 to -235 units. The average moneyline for the Jets was -88 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Rangers averaged 2.5 goals per game and the Jets 1.8.

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Calgary Flames vs Chicago Blackhawks

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Flames. The projected score is Flames 3 and Blackhawks 2.8, and Calgary is winning 53% of simulations. The moneyline for the Flames is -125 which translates to 56 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Flames have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-2 record. They have the large edge in units at +263 to -381. In these games, the Flames averaged 3.1 and the Blackhawks 3 goals.

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Colorado Avalanche vs Detroit Red Wings

The odds and our simulations favor the Avalanche over the Red Wings despite being on the road. The projected score is Avalanche 3.1 and Red Wings 2.7, with Colorado winning 58% of the latest sims. At -152 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Avalanche a 60 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Avalanche are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. They have the large edge in units at +233 to -244. The average moneyline for the Red Wings was -86 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Avalanche averaged 3.2 and the Red Wings 2.5 goals.

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San Jose Sharks vs Montreal Canadiens

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Sharks. The projected score is Sharks 3 and Canadiens 2.9, with San Jose being given a 53% chance of winning. The Sharks are -152 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Sharks going 4-0 and they have the large edge in profit at +385 to -400 units. The average moneyline for the Canadiens was -15 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Sharks averaged 3.8 and the Canadiens 1.5 goals.

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Carolina Hurricanes vs Los Angeles Kings

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Hurricanes. The projected score is Hurricanes 2.6 and Kings 2.5, with Carolina winning 52% of the latest sims. The Hurricanes are -147 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Hurricanes since the moneyline is moving in their ‘direction’. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. The Kings actually have the significant edge in profit at +-24 to 39 units. The average moneyline for the Kings was -28 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Hurricanes averaged 3 and the Kings 2.5 goals.

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Article source: https://www.scout.com/hockey/nhl/news/nhl-game-picks-capitals-a-good-value-even-at-200/

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