The Washington Capitals will attempt to take a commanding 3-1 series lead on the Vegas Golden Knights when they host them as small home favorites in Game 4 of the 2018 Stanley Cup Final on Monday.
The Capitals dominated the Golden Knights in a 3-1 Game 3 victory on Saturday, winning their second straight thanks to the strong play of goaltender Braden Holtby (21 saves).
NHL betting pick, via OddsShark computer:3.6–1.7, Capitals (NHL picks on every game)
Why the Golden Knights can pay on the NHL lines
While Holtby has been outstanding lately in helping turn around this series, he did not face the same barrage of shots in Game 3 compared to Games 1 and 2.
Vegas also made some defensive mistakes that led to more easy goals for Washington, and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury still hasn’t turned in his best performance after surrendering 10 goals over the first three games.Alex Brandon/Associated Press
The good news is the Golden Knights can play much better, and they have been able to win at least one road game among the first two played on their opponent’s ice in each of the previous three rounds.
Why the Capitals can pay on the NHL lines
The Capitals got a pleasant surprise when Evgeny Kuznetsov not only played despite suffering an upper-body injury early in Game 2, but he played well with a goal and an assist to raise his postseason totals to 12 and 15, respectively.
His 27 points lead all players in the playoffs, and his teammates thrive with him on the ice.
Washington improved to 5-5 at home in the postseason and has outscored the opposition 6-1 in its last two games there, according to the OddsShark NHL Database.
If Holtby (21 saves in Game 3), Kuznetsov and captain Alex Ovechkin (two goals in the last two games) can continue at this high level, the Capitals will head back to Vegas up 3-1.Nick Wass/Associated Press
Smart betting pick
The Golden Knights will be desperate for a win in this spot, knowing the odds will be severely against them rallying back if they dig themselves into an even deeper hole.
However, Washington has seemingly figured Vegas out and looked like a veteran squad that has been fighting for the Stanley Cup for years.
The Golden Knights will be hard-pressed to pull it together in a hurry, so back the Capitals to hold them in check once again here.
NHL betting trends
The total has gone under in four of Vegas’ last five games.
The total has gone under in five of Washington’s last six games.
Washington is 4-2 in its last six games at home.
All NHL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week’s top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.