Tuesday features a 12-game NHL DFS slate, which includes a three-game turbo and two-game late options. As always, we’re here to help daily fantasy hockey players with potential value picks and strategy advice for DraftKings and FanDuel contests. Our tips are based on advanced stats, Vegas odds, matchups, and potential points per dollar, among other factors.
Several games could have an over/under of six from Las Vegas. Keep in mind, Vegas is not always right. Also, there is the $50,000 Two Man Advantage contest which has an $8 entry fee ($10,000 to 1st). There is also another qualifier to Toronto tonight ($333 entry fee).
Because of the volatile nature of goalies (and other reasons), there will be more information on social media coming closer to roster lock. Don’t be afraid to ask questions. If you are looking for even more advice and insight, please check me out on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS. Let’s get into tonight’s value picks after a visit from the RotoQL optimizer.
Tuesday NHL DFS Picks: Center values
Derick Brassard, Ottawa @ Pittsburgh (DraftKings $4,000, FanDuel $5,600)
Brassard has one point in his past 10 games which makes this a risky, dangerous play. The Ottawa center is going to see some bad Pittsburgh matchups (Malkin line gives as good as it gets). Ottawa has not been great this year, but it can score some goals (especially against Pittsburgh). Everything points to Pittsburgh, and maybe too much on this night.
With the 12-game slate, there is room to set up a few different lineups that are outside the limits of being safe. This can be a nice one-off or part of a mini-stack. How high event do those Vegas-Chicago and New York-Columbus games become? Those are good questions given their center options and some high floors (lots of shots and/or block potential).
Other Options: Brayden Schenn (okay in price), Patrice Bergeron (near chalk), Nico Hischier, Matt Duchene (risky but price lower), Ryan O’Reilly, Sebastian Aho (Center on DK), Mark Scheifele, Erik Haula/William Karlsson (touch expensive), Evgeni Malkin (near chalk as Sidney Crosby will be), Sean Couturier, Nick Schmaltz, Ryan Getzlaf, Yanni Gourde (as Steven Stamkos is too expensive) , Paul Stastny, Eric Staal, Nick Backstrom (some risk). (More choices on Twitter).
Crazy Value Possible: Pavel Zacha (hit or miss), Chris Tierney, Kevin Hayes, Riley Nash.
Tuesday Daily Fantasy Hockey Picks: Winger values
Miles Wood, New Jersey @ Philadelphia (DraftKings $4,100, FanDuel $4,100)
Special teams could play a key role in Philadelphia, as both New Jersey and Philadelphia are in the bottom third when it comes to discipline and allowing chances on the penalty kill. Also, this is still a pretty nice price for a player growing into his own. He has points in two straight games and four-plus shots on goal in five of his past eight outings. His price is just too low, and he gets top-six time and power play time, as well now. Wood is an annoyance to play against and does have some discipline issues. That is a risk, but there is reward, as well. That speed!
Finding value plays is relatively easy on a large slate like this. The hard part is finding those plays that produce. This is a good play, especially on DraftKings, because of softer pricing. Philadelphia may be sloppy defensively in its first game back at home after a road trip.
Alex Tuch, Justin Williams, and Sam Reinhart are all nice options on DraftKings tonight. With this slate, even these riskier plays are viable. Watch the second and even third lines of some teams (especially Boston). It should take 40-plus points to cash.
Other Options: David Pastrnak/Brad Marchand (chalky), Kyle Palmieri (top line), Claude Giroux, Joe Pavelski, Phil Kessel (expensive), Andreas Athanasiou, Corey Perry (Getzlaf line), Kevin Labanc (low priced on DraftKings), Mike Hoffman/Mark Stone, David Backes, Evgeni Dadonov/Jonathan Huberdeau, Jonathan Marchessault (pricey), Justin Williams (Elias Lindholm at wing on FanDuel), Michael Ferland (watch Calgary wings), Filip Forsberg (It is Tuesday – look at Nashville wingers), Vladimir Tarasenko. More plays will be on social media. Also, watch to see if there are any last-minute line shifts (Extra choices will come later this afternoon on Twitter).
Crazy Value Possible: Mathieu Perreault (watch ice time), Timo Meier (some risk), Ivan Barbashev. Most Ottawa players are priced soft.
Tuesday NHL DFS Advice: Defensemen picks, values
Shayne Gostisbehere, Philadelphia vs. New Jersey (DraftKings $5,500, FanDuel $6,700)
Choices are abundant among defensemen on Tuesday night. Gostisbehere is priced well on DraftKings and is more of a play there. The Philadelphia power play has been lethal against New Jersey in the past two meetings. Gostisbehere has played a huge role in that and expects to again in what should be a contentious affair.
New Jersey has seen awful goaltending and team defense over the last 10 games or so. This will open some options up for Philadelphia, including Ivan Provorov, who does hit value at about an 75 percent clip in the past month. His floor is usually good like mentioned above. His price makes him even more of a play tonight because of how big this slate is. New Jersey has to play uptempo, which should help the Flyers on Tuesday night. That is the going thought anyway.
The defenseman position has lots of possibilities. Alex Pietrangelo and Erik Karlsson have backed off in price but could be a play. There is also a lot of value in the bargain bin. Many punt plays will again arise from the blueline. Also note that Marc-Edouard Vlasic is in play along with the usual value plays.
Other Options: Erik Karlsson (priced too low), Alex Pietrangelo (not as chalky as usual), Brent Burns (chalk), Jordan Oesterle, Sami Vatanen (some risk), Mike Green (high risk), Mark Giordano, Torey Krug (Charlie McAvoy – could even risk Zdeno Chara), Hampus Lindholm, PK Subban, Jake Muzzin, Ryan Pulock, Jared Spurgeon (more value oriented). More choices on social media to come.
Crazy Value Possible: Shea Theodore, Justin Braun, Cody Ceci, Noah Hanifin, Jakob Chychrun (risky), Damon Severson (dangerous risk), Charlie McAvoy.
Tuesday Daily Fantasy Hockey Advice: Goalie picks, values
Jimmy Howard, Detroit vs. Anaheim (DraftKings $7,200, FanDuel $7,700)
Howard is a risky GPP play because of higher event shot and goal projections on Tuesday. He is expected to face over 30 shots but has allowed three or more goals in his past six appearances. Anaheim and Detroit do tend to play some physical games with moderately high shot outputs. The problem is what if Petr Mrazek starts? Basically, the same rule applies here.
That leaves the dilemma of who else to play. Confirmations are just coming out, so the best course of action may be to wait a bit. There are also some low team totals tonight. For as many bullish predictions from Vegas, there are some bears as well. Buffalo goaltending may be a decent GPP play tonight. After that, there is too much risk. There are quite a few cash goalie options at least.
The emphasis will be to wait until closer to lock (7 p.m. ET) for any line shifts and goalie changes, etc. Also, watch for injuries and returns tonight as some projections may be impacted.
Other Options: Tuukka Rask (Cash play), Connor Hellebuyck (some risk), Matt Murray (cash play), Jeff Glass (extreme risk play), Jaroslav Halak (very risky). More choices will come closer to lock. Watch for late line changes and injury news as that will have more impact than usual.
NHL DFS Picks for Tuesday: Top Lines to Stack
These are based on RotoQL lineup optimizer projections.
- · PHI 1 – 1 will be lower owned than the Pittsburgh top two lines and maybe that is OK. The top Flyers line has hit for multiple goals in every matchup against New Jersey. It may even be okay to go power play stack here.
- · PIT 2– Has been consistently Pittsburghs’ best line all year and should draw the best matchups while Crosby line may be super chalky due to historical numbers alone and how bad Ottawa has been.
- · NYI 2 – The Tavares line should be good, but Mathew Barzal was benched the last few minutes over the weekend. That may set him up for a good night against a Columbus team that can be shaky at times.
- · CLB 1 – Who can stop the Breadman, I mean Artemi Panarin? The Islanders may not be able to here.
- · NJD 2 – The Hall line is a bit expensive, but Pavel Zacha may be a bit of a surprise tonight.
- · NSH 2 – If Filip Forsberg is on line two, then it carries some price but Forsberg electrifies an already potent line. Check for updates.
- · BOS 1 – Calgary could be a nice, contrarian play tonight but Boston still is more reliable. Watch for Heinen on line one and even Boston’s second line may be good for a mini-stack. No Mike Smith for Calgary in net.
- · SJ PP 1 – Brent Burns and the San Jose power play has made a resurgence! Arizona had an emotional rout over Chicago last night. San Jose may rise up the rankings as the day goes on.
- · CGY 1 – The Flames are better on the road and have a decent match-up here.
- · BUF PP 1 – This is a little risky because of pace concerns. Tampa line one is the better play normally but will be dicey because of the high paced game in Toronto last night (will be lower owned at least).
These are just a few lines. As updates become more available, there will be more on social media. Watch to see who plays. That will swing ownership a little bit. Our spotlight picks feature more value, which can mean more inherent risk. Those picks will mostly be lower owned.
NHL DFS Strategy: Reviewing what went wrong
There were three high-scoring games on yesterday’s three-game slate. That never ends well. Consider that Connor McDavid was extreme chalk, and all he did was have a goal and an assist with five shots. The one chalky goaltending pick (Antti Raanta) worked great, as he stopped 38 of 39 shots. It was a high-scoring night, which made it paramount to have the right chalk. Vincent Trocheck and Evgenii Dadonov had five combined goals for Florida in what was a crazy night.
Article source: http://www.sportingnews.com/fantasy/sport/news/nhl-dfs-picks-strategy-tuesday-february-13-advice-daily-fantasy-hockey-over-under-vegas-total-draftkings-fanduel-sleepers-values-gpp-tournaments-cash/k4luem6nl7gz1ps3qmkpkr8nu