Tuesday night features a medium-sized seven-game NHL DFS slate that features a three-game turbo and a two-game late contest. As always, we’ve identified a bunch of potential value picks for DraftKings and FanDuel contests and have plenty of daily fantasy hockey advice that could help you take down a contest tonight. Advanced stats, matchups, Vegas odds, and potential points per dollar are all factors into our suggestions.
Once again, several games tonight have an over/under of six based on Vegas odds. However, as we saw on Tuesday and Wednesday, several games with projected high totals fizzled, which is always a worry.
Because of the volatile nature of goalies (and other reasons), there will be more information on social media coming closer to roster lock. Don’t be afraid to ask questions. If you are looking for even more advice and insight, please check me out on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS. Let’s get into tonight’s value picks after a visit from the RotoQL optimizer.
Thursday NHL DFS Picks: Center values
Christian Dvorak, Arizona @ Calgary (DraftKings $3,300, FanDuel $4,200)
With a bunch of higher-profile options on Thursday, Dvorak is more of a DraftKings play, as his price is better there. He has mostly stayed around $3,500 all season long with a few exceptions. His FanDuel price is creeping up a bit, but can still be in play. The pivot saw around 19 minutes of ice time in his last game and is being relied upon more. Arizona’s team total is 1.5 currently, so expectations are low, but it won’t take more than an assist for him to hit value either.
With the seven-game slate, there is still room to set up a few different lineups that aren’t necessarily “safe”. This can even be a nice one-off if needed or part of a mini-stack. Expect McDavid ownership to be extremely high, as DFS players will keep trying to go for it.
The good news is there are several other options as far as value on Tuesday night. Even Adrian Kempe and Phillip Danault (Drouin out) will be nice shelter even with their slightly rising DraftKings prices. Vegas and Tampa’s first lines will have some ownership potential. It’s OK to go with extreme chalk sometimes as long as you know what you’re getting into.
Other Options: Connor McDavid (very chalky), Anze Kopitar, Auston Matthews (less risk – high shot rate per 60), Sean Couturier, Kyle Turris, Sean Monahan. Nazem Kadri, Mikko Koivu.
Crazy Value Possible: Frans Nielsen, Erik Haula (DraftKings only – extreme risk), Ryan Strome (moderately high risk – wing on FanDuel)
Thursday Daily Fantasy Hockey Picks: Winger values
Marian Gaborik, Los Angeles @ Washington (DraftKings $3,700, FanDuel $4,300)
Gaborik is on a bit of a roll, as he has exceeded value in two of his last three games. Washington’s defense can be considered somewhat leaky, as it will allow over 30 shots a game even at home. Gaborik has looked the best he has in a few seasons. While this is not 2007, the winger is seeing power play time, which will add value, particularly given his lower price on DraftKings.
Toronto will be a play, as well, because of their strong power play. Both teams can make this case as we did on Fantasy Hockey X (also on iTunes) last night. Edmonton is a bit of a nightmare to gauge because of all the line switching. It is highly recommended to check back often to see what happens next.
Alex Tuch, Anthony Duclair, and Alex DeBrincat (again!) are all nice low-price options on DraftKings tonight. With this slate, even these riskier plays are viable. On a few lineups, these forwards may be worth a shot. Watch the second and even third lines of some teams. Even an Andreas Athanasiou one-off play may be worth a flier.
Other Options: James van Riemsdyk (lower owned than usual), Mikael Granlund (Minnesota), Johnny Gaudreau (near chalk), Jonathan Marchessault, Tyler Toffoli, Brock Boeser, Viktor Arvidsson/Filip Forsberg, Anthony Mantha (high risk GPP flier). More plays will be on social media.
Crazy Value Possible: Trevor Lewis, Christian Fischer (high risk), Kevin Fiala, Brandon Perlini, Sam Gagner (dangerous risk).
Thursday NHL DFS Advice: Defensemen picks, values
Shea Theodore, Vegas @ Minnesota (DraftKings $4,000, FanDuel $3,500)
Choices are abundant among defensemen on Thursday night. Theodore shoots at moderate levels typically and has block potential of two or three shots a game. On occasion, he will block more. That sounds a bit risky, but Minnesota’s metrics (particularly Corsi for and against have been at the bottom of the league). This means more chances for points in the conventional and not-so-conventional ways.
Theodore has exceeded value in four straight contests and again will be utilized to set up for offense tonight. There should be enough chances for the Vegas defenseman to come in with a solid floor at least. Plus, this will save money for all those higher-priced choices and stacks.
The defenseman position has lots of possibilities. PK Subban or Roman Josi could be a semi-chalky-yet-good choice because Vancouver will give up some quality chances. Their goaltending can give up goals in small bunches. Expected goals for is up tonight for some defensemen and value is higher than usual as seen below with our recommendations. Watch to see if Shea Weber plays. He is close.
Other Options: Mike Green (not as chalky), Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Roman Josi (nearly chalk), Jake Muzzin (less risk), Dougie Hamilton (will be moderately owned), John Klingberg (price coming down), Duncan Keith (could surprise tonight).
Crazy Value Possible: Matthew Benning (PP1 for now), Darnell Nurse, Matthew Dumba (Spurgeon out), Joe Morrow, Gustav Forsling/Cody Franson (Chicago’s metrics off the charts with Brent Seabrook demotion).
Thursday Daily Fantasy Hockey Advice: Goalie picks, values
Frederik Andersen, Toronto @ Edmonton (DraftKings $7,500, FanDuel $8,200)
Andersen is on one of his patented runs with seven out of his last eight starts exceeding value. This started with the game against New Jersey, as the Toronto goalie has faced high volume (well over 30 shots per night) while delivering quality starts (two or less goals allowed) consistently. Edmonton has been scoring more lately but in bunches as opposed to consistently (17 goals in the previous five contests). There is risk.
Andersen is a risky GPP option on DraftKings and FanDuel. That leaves the dilemma of who else to play. Confirmations are just coming out, so the best course of action may be to wait a bit. There are also some low team totals tonight. For as many bullish predictions as there are from Vegas, there are some bears as well.
The emphasis will be to wait until closer to lock (7 p.m. ET) for any line shifts and goalie changes, etc. Also, watch for injuries and returns tonight as some projections may be impacted.
Other Options: Laurent Brossoit (high risk – if he plays), Pekka Rinne (mostly cash), Jonathan Quick, Jimmy Howard. More choices will come closer to lock.
NHL DFS Picks for Thursday: Top Lines to Stack
These are based on RotoQL lineup optimizer projections. Coming soon, this will be a space where we dive into even more of what the optimizer spits out.
- · NSH 1 – 1 will be owned at a moderately high rate but not mega chalk like some are predicting. NSH 2 can be used but remember pace will make it risky.
- · CGY 1 – Is expensive but watch to see who draws Ekman-Larsson and Demers assignment, pivot to CGY 2 if needed for price relief.
- · Just play McDavid – sometimes chalk is okay and pair him with one of the defenseman and/or power play reinforcements. (see Benning or Nurse for value)
- · CHI 2 – One of the better lines in the league against and still pretty cheap stack wise. DeBrincat Watch.
- · LAK 2 (Some think LAK 1 will be higher owned – can use parts)
- · ARZ 1 or 2 for contrarian value (lowered expectations given they have hit the under five of the last six times in Calgary).
- · DAL 2 – Watch for Seguin even in what could be a mid-event game. Note we said could… Dallas does not allow a lot of chances typically even on the road.
- · TOR PP 1 – Arguably projected higher but also a van Riemsdyk-Kadri mini stack plausible or Matthews as a one-off. Marner is a FanDuel bargain.
- · WSH 1 – Very risky but just stay away from Tom Wilson
These are just a few lines. As updates become more available, there will be more on social media. Watch to see who plays. That will swing ownership a little bit. This is one of those nights where even one or two scoops can mean a huge difference. Our spotlight picks feature more value, which can mean more inherent risk.
NHL DFS Strategy: Reviewing what went wrong
This is always going to be a section full of “hindsight is 20/20”. However, Wednesday’s four-game slate was scary yet simple. If you did not play Carey Price or John Gibson, there was trouble. If one played St. Louis line one, that really hurt. The chalk went pan flat. Vladimir Tarasenko did not have one shot on goal, though he hit a crossbar very hard. Scores were painfully low, as they can be on some-short slates. When high 20’s to low 30’s cashes on DraftKings easily, that is a sign. Kyle Brodziak scored twice late for St. Louis. It was a scramble for any points last night.
Article source: http://www.sportingnews.com/fantasy/sport/news/nhl-dfs-picks-strategy-thursday-november-30-advice-daily-fantasy-hockey-over-under-vegas-total-draftkings-fanduel-sleepers-values-gpp-tournaments-cas/oqe7a42lfjn01opv0uths8lwc